Looking for arbitrage possibilities in Modern Lit

June 22nd, 2007 § 3

A look at the market for 4 books published in 1929 – it mostly makes sense, dip during the recession in the early 90’s, spike during the speculation happy internet boom, but how ’bout that Faulkner? As it’s hard to read my scrawl, the price axis goes from 0-10,000, the date from 1976 to present. Death Comes for the Archbishop is blue, Look Homeward Angel black, A Farewell to Arms is pink (just to make Ernie turn over in his grave) and The Sound and the Fury crimson.
1929 Book Prices|
Possible interpretations include – arbitrage possibilities between Faulkner and Hemingway – sell Faulkner short and buy Hem.

They’re both overvalued, buy Thomas Wolfe, he was tall and wrote most of his books on top of his refrigerator.

Willa Cather is too low volatility to get excited about.

It’s interesting to look at the data and see that every spike is accompanied by a surge in supply (as the price increase scares copies out of hiding) and a (usually temporary) dip.

I’ve only read Farewell and Sound and the Fury and liked Farewell immensely (years ago) and was suitably impressed by The Sound and the Fury without being crazy about it. I was always been too intimidated by Look Homeward to attempt it and now it seems too late.

Abebooks.com

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§ 3 Responses to “Looking for arbitrage possibilities in Modern Lit”

  • Josh Glenn says:

    Please add the following titles to chart. I may be interested in investing in your hedge fund, if trends look good: Eugene O’Neill’s play “Dynamo,” Dashiell Hammett’s “Red Harvest,” John Steinbeck’s debut novel “Cup of Gold,” Edmund Wilson’s “I Thought of Daisy.” Would also be interested in seeing how these nonfiction titles have fared: Walter Lippmann’s “A Preface to Morals,” Lynds’ “Middletown” (I have a 1st of this), and Thurber & White’s “Is Sex Necessary?”

  • [...] scarcer item for the bargain price of, say, $300,000? It may just go to show that Hemingway (as we revealed in a previous post) is down on his luck these days, passed over for the red hot William Faulkner. Explore posts in the [...]

  • [...] far scarcer item for the bargain price of, say, $300,000?  It may just go to show that Hemingway (as we revealed in a previous post) is down on his luck these days, passed over for the red hot William [...]

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